Thursday, 26 March 2020

Cheltenham - Day 4

Cheltenham has always been a good meeting to me, in fact, I can’t remember a losing one in the time I’ve been using tipsters, but it is rare for all four days to produce a profit. This year bucked that trend. Saint Roi was triumphant in the County hurdle for the first winner on the Friday, which was advised by Racing Service 3 (7.4) and also by TVB (6.8) who again put his matrix method to good use.

In the Gold Cup I had backed a few, although Presenting Percy would have been the best result after being backed antepost by both TVB and NMP but unfortunately I don’t think the ground was riding soft enough on the day for him. After backing Al Boum Photo at 16/1 in last year’s race, it was no surprise to see Racing Service 3 side with him again for this year’s renewal albeit at a much lower price of 4.4. Northern Monkey was also in the Al Boum corner so it was a decent result when the favourite managed to win the race for the second year in a row.

NMP rounded off an exceptional four days by managing to find the winner of the final two races of the day. Chosen Mate (5.2) was a well-backed favourite in the Grand Annual but it was Indefatigable (48.0) who really signed things off in style. Wayne had issued the tip at 40/1 before going off at an SP of 25/1, however fortunately for me I managed to achieve a much bigger price on the exchange 10 mins or so before the off in what was to be the biggest priced winner of the week. What a race it was to sign off. Indefatigable came from a long way back with an exceptional run to get his nose up right on the line. We were no doubt lucky to see Column of Fire come down at the final fence, as that one would probably have proven difficult to pass, but what a way to round off a superb week.

Cheltenham 2020 profit – £6,704.19 at 82.3% ROI.

Day 4 Winners:
14.10     Saint Roi – RS3 / TVB
15.30     Al Boum Photo – NMP / RS3
16.50     Chosen Mate – NMP
17.30     Indefatigable – NMP

Cheltenham Day 4 - P&L Summary
Tipster
£ P&L
Pts P&L
ROI
ROC
NMP
£827.14
20.68
150.8%
17.2%
TVB
-£920.55
-4.60
-90.3%
-7.7%
Racing Service 3
£670.18
13.40
135.7%
6.7%
My Own Bets
-£19.28

-5.0%

Total
£557.49

22.8%
3.2%

Cheltenham 2020 - P&L Summary
Tipster
£ P&L
Pts P&L
ROI
ROC
NMP
£1,396.50
34.91
62.8%
29.1%
TVB
£948.20
4.74
30.2%
7.9%
Racing Service 3
£3,546.43
70.93
185.2%
35.5%
My Own Bets
£813.06

93.7%

Total
£6,704.19

82.3%
38.5%

Wednesday, 25 March 2020

Cheltenham - Day 3

Going into day three, I was feeling chuffed about how the first two days went with over five grand profit made, albeit conceding I got lucky with Dame De Compagnie. It is rare to make nearly £3k profit on a day at Cheltenham through only backing two winners, but fortunately, that’s how it turned out.

Things got off and running for the day in the second race when Sire Du Berlais won the Pertemps for the 2nd year in a row advised on race morning by both NMP (13.5) and RS3 (13.0) with Min (3.15) following up soon after in the Ryanair. Simply The Betts was a good result in the Brown Advisory Plate after being another superb NMP antepost tip (9.5) combined with also being included as the second leg of an NMP double (11.8) and being part of the TVB matrix method (4.6). Concertista was the third horse of the day that was advised by more than one service after both RS3 (6.0) and NMP (6.2) sided with it on the morning of the race. The final race of the day produced the smallest winner of the week when £7.50 was staked on Milan Native as part of the TVB matrix method.

Despite managing to find the winner in five of the days seven races, the daily P&L was down substantially on the previous two days, which was simply down to the majority of winners being “saver” bets with the main bets being losers. With hindsight, I should have placed multiples on all horses who were advised by more than one service, but hindsight is a wonderful thing. If only it was that easy.

Day 3 Winners:
14.10     Sire Du Berlais – NMP/ RS3
14.50     Min – RS3
16.10     Simply The Betts – NMP / TVB
16.50     Concertista – NMP / RS3
17.30     Milan Native – TVB

Cheltenham Day 3 - P&L Summary
Tipster
£ P&L
Pts P&L
ROI
ROC
NMP
£123.64
3.09
18.5%
2.6%
TVB
-£528.01
-2.64
-70.9%
-4.4%
Racing Service 3
£1,216.76
24.34
185.1%
12.2%
My Own Bets
-£280.00

-90.3%

Total
£532.39

22.4%
3.1%

Monday, 23 March 2020

Cheltenham - Day 2

After enjoying a great first day, I was hopeful the Wednesday would continue in the same vein in what looked like a promising looking card. It was a day that included the best bet of the week and a number of short priced favourites who I had rolled up into a number of multiples that I felt were dead certs. It is funny how often you count the cash well in advance of the racing even starting!

The first race of the day included the first of these short priced favourites in Envoi Allen who managed to justify the support to win the Ballymore. Nothing was won on the race but it did get the multiples off to a good start. The day certainly got moving though in the second race, the RSA. NMP had backed Minella Indo who looked to have the race sewn up on numerous occasions up the home straight trading at 1.06 in running, but from nowhere Champ (6.0) advised by Racing Service 3 rallied close home to nail Minella at the line after trading as high as 600. Minella was the one who was included on the multiples but Champ was worth a lot more from a singles perspective. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing when Champ flew home with a wet sail, it really was a thrilling race.

Next up was the bet of the week, Dame De Compagnie in the Coral Cup. First put up on the antepost thread within the TVB forum at a best price of 21.0 back on 13th February, and then two weeks later by NMP at prices ranging from 17.0 to 15.0, it was clear it was well fancied. Account restrictions meant I could only place 25% of the TVB stake at odds of 13.0, although I managed to get the entire NMP stake down at an average price of 14.0 due to the monetary value of the NMP stake being smaller than TVB. The morning of the race arrived and TVB again weighed in, getting involved in an official capacity tipping the horse, while also including it within his “matrix” method. This was enough evidence for me to take the hint and place the remaining 75% antepost stake at morning prices (6.0) so it’s fair to say I was all in! With hindsight I maybe had too much on it as we all know how easily things can go against you in these races, but there is times when an opportunity presents itself and you need to ensure you take full advantage. To make nearly 25% of the TVB bank on one horse alone probably indicates I had staked to heavily, and that was even with missing the juicy antepost prices, but at least luck was on our side in this instance. In the race itself Barry Geraghty always had Dame De Compagnie well positioned and he was unleashed between the final two fences to run out a comfortable winner.

Dame De Compagnie was also a good result for the multiples and with Defi Du Sueil and Tiger Roll to come in the next two, if I was counting the cash before the first I was spending it after the third! NMP had taken an antepost price on Defi so when what looked like his only two challengers Altior and Chacun Pour Soi pulled out I really couldn’t see Defi being beat. The same could have been said for Tiger Roll but it just goes to show there are never any certainties.

Day 2 Winners:
14.10     Champ – RS3
14.50     Dame De Compagnie – NMP / TVB


Cheltenham Day 2 - P&L Summary
Tipster
£ P&L
Pts P&L
ROI
ROC
NMP
-£332.50
-8.31
-61.3%
-6.9%
TVB
£2,776.76
13.88
509.7%
23.1%
Racing Service 3
£440.75
8.82
174.6%
4.4%
My Own Bets
-£90.00

-100.0%

Total
£2,795.01

195.5%
16.1%

Friday, 20 March 2020

Cheltenham - Day 1

I was lucky enough to attend Prestbury Park this year and what an incredible few days it was. Whether with hindsight it was a good idea to stage it or not is another question but I certainly enjoyed myself anyway. The three racing services all approached the week using different strategies to each other with all approaches complimenting each other nicely. Northern Monkey Punter built an impressive antepost portfolio as usual, and supplemented it with saver bets and multiples each morning. Racing Service 3 was business as usual and continued as if it were any other day advising bets in his normal fashion, which also included advice away from Cheltenham. With The Value Bettor, I’ve mentioned a few times of his previous Cheltenham woes so I was intrigued to see how TVB approached things this year after commenting last year that he may swerve the meeting from a tipping perspective all together. I knew (or at least hoped I knew) this would never happen since TVB is a service for NH enthusiasts and Cheltenham is obviously the pinnacle of the NH season. It certainly would have been strange having no TVB tips at all. The TVB offering this year was to provide some unofficial antepost guidance in his forum, and then provide his usual thoughts on every race while keeping the number of tips thin on the ground. He also supplemented the tips with his new “matrix” method, which Andrew has been trialling (with great success) for a couple of months. The aim of the matrix method is to provide a higher strike rate in what he terms as BFHP’s (Big Field Handicap Puzzles) where he spreads a 20 unit stake between a number of horses within a big field handicap to ensure all eggs are not in the one basket. The final TVB offering was a new live blog on the forum, which TVB used to provide his thoughts on each race as the day progressed and new information became available. When you put all three offerings together, it is quite an armoury.

Day 1
Northern Monkey got things off to a flyer as Shishkin landed the opener despite defying a drift in the market to an SP of 6/1 and BFSP of 10.48! Unfortunately for me the bet was advised antepost so I took a price of 4.0 in the weeks prior. NMP also advised runner-up Abracadabras as a saver on the morning of the race but despite personally not profiting from the saver, it was a great way to start the festival for NMP. It wasn’t long before the second winner of the day arrived and what a result it was. We sided with The Conditional in the Ultima, again advised antepost by NMP (13.0) but this time was also tipped on the morning of the race by RS3 (8.4) and via TVB’s matrix method (9.0). It’s unusual for all three services to be in agreement, in fact I can’t remember a time when they’ve all sided with the same horse but it’s certainly nice when one like this wins. The result banked £1800 to ensure it would be a profitable first day regardless of what occurred afterwards.  

Further success was to follow in the Champion Hurdle when favourite Epatante landed a 5.06 double (with a winner earlier in the season) and Honeysuckle obliging in the Mares for both NMP (another double at 27.0) and RS3. It really was a day to remember for both Racing Service 3 and Northern Monkey who managed to emulate 2019s three antepost winners on St Patrick’s Thursday with four antepost winners on this year’s opening day. However, it could easily have been so much better as in addition to the four winners, NMP remarkably managed to find the second place finishers in the other three races! My own lucky 63 for the day was made up of six NMP selections so I managed four winners and two seconds to bank £1300. It would have been £70k if Fakir d’oudaries and Galvin managed to turn their 2nd place finishes into wins but it was a good result regardless and is always nice when you get a run for your money with these types of bets.      

Day 1 Winners:
13.30     Shishkin – NMP
14.50     The Conditional – NMP / TVB / RS3
15.30     Epatante – NMP
16.10     Honeysuckle – NMP / RS3           

Cheltenham Day 1 - P&L Summary
Tipster
£ P&L
Pts P&L
ROI
ROC
NMP
£778.22
19.46
168.1%
16.2%
TVB
-£380.00
-1.90
-45.8%
-3.2%
Racing Service 3
£1,218.74
24.37
238.6%
12.2%
My Own Bets
£1,202.34

1448.6%

Total
£2,819.30

149.4%
16.2%


Thursday, 19 March 2020

Where to Begin...

First of all apologies for not posting for a while, there’s been a lot going on recently as I’m sure you’re aware so finding the time to sit down and write a post has been difficult. This coronavirus has certainly grew arms and legs and appears to be taking over the world. Prior to last week I was firmly in the “it’s a fuss over nothing” camp and was sure it would be gone as quickly as it arrived, but that doesn’t look to be the case. Our betting is without doubt going to dissolve into insignificance over the weeks and months ahead as we all have tough times ahead to get through. For the sake of our sanity, health and of course betting, hopefully things do not take too long before they are back to some semblance of normality.

I am conscious of the fact I have a job on my hands to get the blog back up to date given the time that has elapsed since my last post and the events that have occurred since. However, with practically no sport being played at the moment together with the entire country seemingly going into self-isolation then I’ve got more time on my hands than usual so I might as well put that time to use. I’ll probably break the Cheltenham updates down into a couple of smaller posts and will likely also use this opportunity to write about a few other topics I’ve been meaning to write about for a while without actually finding the time to do so. That is of course assuming anyone even has any interest in this when we all have greater issues to deal with.    

Before I get onto Cheltenham, the days prior to the festival yielded a healthy profit. Racing Service 3 set things up perfectly by successfully emulating his pre-Cheltenham 2019 heroics by going on another remarkable run to build the bank ahead of the festival. Last year it was curtesy of one 28/1 winner, but this year he managed to bag nine winners in four days to ensure we’d go into the Supreme with money already banked.

Profit below is up to and including 9th March. Back with Cheltenham soon…

March P&L Summary
Tipster
£ P&L
Pts P&L
ROI
ROC
NMP
£27.90
0.70
6.4%
0.6%
TVB
-£100.00
-0.50
-100.0%
-0.8%
Racing Service 3
£1,285.22
25.70
23.6%
12.9%
SFB
-£100.82
-1.01
-10.6%
-2.5%
GBE
£0.00
0.00

0.0%
Golf Service 2
-£83.61
-8.36
-22.8%
-2.1%
My Own Bets
-£7.45

-8.8%

Total
£1,021.24

13.9%
5.9%

2019/20 P&L Summary
Tipster
£ P&L
Pts P&L
ROI
ROC
NMP
£1,727.76
43.19
9.5%
36.0%
TVB
£4,810.69
24.05
22.4%
40.1%
Racing Service 3
£2,079.12
41.58
2.2%
20.8%
SFB
-£222.89
-2.23
-0.7%
-5.6%
GBE
-£2,171.83
-217.18
-31.3%
-54.3%
Golf Service 2
£842.24
84.22
17.0%
21.1%
My Own Bets
-£1,351.93

-13.2%

Total
£5,713.16

3.0%
32.8%