Tuesday, 10 December 2019

What Is Value?

It’s a term you’ll hear on a frequent basis but what exactly does it mean? It’s clearly quite subjective as I’ve witnessed in the past with two tipsters advising the same bet at vastly varying prices. Obviously both are of the opinion that the price they advise represents value but can that really be the case if you’re now backing a 5/1 shot that you backed at 10/1 earlier in the day? People who follow tipsters really have no way of knowing how much value remains when odds have moved so how do you make the call of whether to place the bet or not? In a recent post I was bemoaning my luck of missing a number of bets that went on to win due to deciding to pass on them as the advised odds were no longer available. This was something Rowan picked up on in his latest SBC Bet Diary blog post where he pointed out that Andrew of The Value Bettor regularly mentions that money arriving close to the off, is often highly significant. Rowan suggests that in this situation a price of 5/1 on a bet which was advised at 10/1 may actually hold some value. But how do you actually know for certain? How do you know the money coming in is significant? TVB also recommends against taking prices less than 20% of his advised price as historically the bets which contract by 20% or greater don’t show any profit. Since you and I are in the dark on this subject then I think that could be a good rule of thumb. It won’t be a one size fits all but I reckon if you can regularly match the advised price, then you can afford to take prices down to 20% less than the advised price then that’s a fair compromise. But then again what if you go through a spell of missing winners like my recent run and they were all available at 25% less than the advised price? Maybe betting to BSP is a better idea!? The truth is that you’ll never be able to ascertain the correct course of action every time, so I think you just need to choose the strategy that fits best with your personal circumstances and stick to that strategy through thick and thin. That may be that you bet as soon as the tip is sent regardless of price / use the 20% rule / wait until 10 minutes before the off / use BSP / or pass on bets when the odds have gone. I’ve suffered recently by changing strategy as I decided to let bets run that went on to win, then changed to placing all bets regardless of price just in time for a losing spell. If I stayed with the same strategy throughout then the luck would have evened out rather than exacerbating the situation by missing winners then backing losers. Anyway, that’s enough of me rambling about stuff I don’t know the answers to and back to portfolio performance. The season’s rollercoaster ride continues as we’ve witnessed some recovery as the P&L graph starts to climb again. We’re reaching the end of the Golf betting year with Golf Service 2 taking a break until the New Year, but it was Golf Betting Expert who provided the goods this week. After many near misses this season Ryo Ishikawa was tipped at 22/1 win only in Japan to provide a well-deserved winner to reward GBE’s patient subscribers. Racing Service 3 has also steadied the ship with a 31% strike rate at 88.6% ROI in December so far, with both Scottish Football Bets and Northern Monkey also providing some profit to provide some foundations that can be built on for the rest of the month. The Value Bettor has had a near enough break even start to the month but credit goes to one of his subscribers who run a TVB Syndicate on the TVB forum each week. CraigL has ran a syndicate using Colossus for the past season or two in which he diligently picks our lines and allows TVB subscribers to contribute towards. We were finally rewarded with a big pay out at Sandown on Friday with a winning ticket that paid around the £3k mark of which I was lucky enough to own 10%, so thanks very much Craig! That’s one way to improve the ‘My Own Bets’ figures below! December P&L: Northern Monkey: £62.37, 10.2% ROI The Value Bettor: -£103.62, -5.5% ROI Racing Service 3: £2049.13, 88.6% ROI Scottish Football Bets: £402.23, 29.8% ROI Golf Betting Expert: £420.56, 116.8% ROI Golf Service 2: -£101.78, -67.9% ROI My Own Bets: £342.68, 52.3% ROI Total: £3071.57, 42.0% ROI 2019/20 P&L: Northern Monkey: £2589.37, 20.6% ROI The Value Bettor: £3173.47, 31.2% ROI Racing Service 3: £1520.64, 3.3% ROI Scottish Football Bets: -£439.54, -2.0% ROI Golf Betting Expert: -£239.37, -5.5% ROI Golf Service 2: -£271.07, -9.7% ROI My Own Bets: -£733.50, -10.8% ROI Total: £5600.00, 5.3% ROI

Tuesday, 3 December 2019

November Review

November is without doubt one month I’ll be glad to see the back of! It started with huge promise but unfortunately ended in despair with another couple of hundred quid lost in the final few days of the month to add to the recent woes. To make matters worse, my long standing Bet365 account of 15 years has finally bit the dust with the dreaded restriction email arriving over the weekend. I’m a little perplexed by the timing of the restriction though considering my account is showing a loss of £2400 for the past 3 weeks so I can only assume that my file has been sitting on the trader’s desk for a number of weeks so to speak and has eventually made its way to the top of the pile! If I was in the trader’s shoes though I think I’d have waited a while longer to claw back some more of my winnings given my recent form! I really do need to think long and hard about how to get around this issue though as this account was used for one third of all bets placed this season. Northern Monkey will be hardest hit as I used Bet365 for around 80%-90% of all NMP bets. TVB will also be impacted as this was the only account I could use to place bets when they are first released just prior to 9am. It couldn’t have come at a worse time either as if it was going to be difficult to recover from my recent run then this restriction will make things ten times harder. Getting back to the task at hand I started the month £4,231.14 in profit then six days into the month the profit had peaked at £10,316.87 and everything was rosy and stress free with a feeling of fulfilment and sense of achievement. Since the dizzy heights of the 6th November though all the hard work has been undone with the profit level decreasing by £7,727.77 to £2,589.10 with the previous elation turning into dejection and an intense feeling of vulnerability. I’ve said previously that I’d always chose the more volatile ride if it meant that my Return on Capital at the end of the season was higher but after enduring this turbulent run of results I’m not sure I still hold the same opinion. It was probably short sighted and naive of me to think I’d be unaffected by the bigger swings that come with the territory of increasing stakes but perhaps I needed a run of results like this to open my eyes and make me a little more wise to the situation. I’d say this run has probably changed my outlook on a number of things so perhaps in the long term this run of results will do me the world of good. November P&L: Northern Monkey: -£603.60 (-15.09 pts), -32.6% ROI, -12.6% ROC The Value Bettor: £2514.78 (12.57 pts), 35.2% ROI, 21.0% ROC Racing Service 3: -£2661.42 (-53.23 pts), -15.2% ROI, -22.2% ROC Scottish Football Bets: -£30.51 (-0.31 pts), -0.7% ROI, -0.8% ROC Golf Betting Expert: -£221.16 (-22.12 pts), -34.3% ROI, -5.5% ROC Golf Service 2: -£356.75 (-35.68 pts), -64.6% ROI, -8.9% ROC My Own Bets: -£283.38, -15.6% ROI Total: -£1642.04, -4.9% ROI, -9.4% ROC 2019/20 P&L: Northern Monkey: £2527.00 (63.18 pts), 21.1% ROI, 52.6% ROC The Value Bettor: £3277.09 (16.39 pts), 39.5% ROI, 27.3% ROC Racing Service 3: -£620.99 (-12.42 pts), -1.4% ROI, -5.2% ROC Scottish Football Bets: -£565.08 (-5.65 pts), -2.7% ROI, -14.1% ROC Golf Betting Expert: -£699.37 (-69.94 pts), -17.0% ROI, -17.5% ROC Golf Service 2: -£236.79 (-23.68 pts), -8.7% ROI, -5.9% ROC My Own Bets: -£1092.76, -17.7% ROI Total: £2589.10, 2.6% ROI, 14.9% ROC

Wednesday, 27 November 2019

Meltdown

I’ve been meaning to make a conscious effort to update the blog on a Monday to ensure the weekend’s emotions are fresh in the mind, but after the betting meltdown I’ve suffered I really couldn’t bring myself to it this week. The Happy Diva win last Saturday seems like a lifetime ago with 8 out of 9 losing days since. And they haven’t been minor losses either, they’ve been substantial and have really hit home regarding how difficult it can be to make money from this. My daily P&L since last Saturday is:
  • Sunday 17th £900.00 loss
  • Monday 18th £789.86 loss
  • Tuesday 19th £689.89 loss
  • Wednesday 20th £354.72 loss
  • Thursday 21st £336.24 loss
  • Friday 22nd £1237.17 loss
  • Saturday 23rd £2408.44 loss
  • Sunday 24th £1080.00 profit
  • Monday 25th £554.13 loss
  • Tuesday 26th £551.34 loss

That’s a total loss of £6741.79 in 10 days. It was literally only a few weeks ago when I discussed the huge drawdown I was on, and how quickly things turned around to generate a new high profit level, but now I’m back in an even deeper drawdown that’s happened quicker than the previous recovery! I know I’m following the correct tipsters and that my setup provides me with the best chance of profiting long term but these huge swings don’t half get you down. It’s unbelievable how quickly your mental state can change while doing this. This month alone I’ve experienced the elation of winning £6k in less than a week, but have also lost £6k in the space of a week. While winning you feel invincible, as though every bet you place is going to be a winner, but while losing every bet feels like a chore and you almost know before you even place the bet that you’re backing another loser. You feel totally helpless and often wonder where it’s all going to end up. That’s why the most successful bettors are the ones who can take the emotion out of it and I think I’m better than most at this, however I’m still a fair way from where I’d like to be. Saturday’s loss of almost £2.5k is the biggest sum of money I’ve ever lost in a single day. It’s pretty eye watering and is more than I earn in a month. Of the 23 tips issued I managed one winner, and that winner was the shortest odds of the lot at 2.2. I also tried a few multiples of my own using the tips but that was always doomed to failure considering none of the tips actually managed to win in their own right. The only positive was TVB tipping Chris’s Dream (8.0) in the Troytown over at Navan on Sunday, a race in which TVB has historically done well in. And if I’m clutching at straws I suppose another positive is the fact that I’m still £1100 up on the lowest point of last month’s drawdown so provided the worst of this one is over then there’s hope that the tide will turn once more. I’d be interested to hear your stories and experiences in coping with the huge swings. I’m sure a few of you will be using the same level of stakes as me, some may even stake more, however it’s all relative and I’m sure if you’re a smaller stakes bettor then the hurt and emotions you endure will be as hard hitting as mine. Feel free to leave a comment or send a DM on Twitter. November P&L: Northern Monkey: -£523.86, -34.5% ROI The Value Bettor: £1935.78, 32.4% ROI Racing Service 3: -£1646.25, -10.3% ROI Scottish Football Bets: -£324.82, -10.3% ROI Golf Betting Expert: -£181.72, -35.3% ROI Golf Service 2: -£264.25, -57.4% ROI My Own Bets: -£392.57, -25.5% ROI Total: -£1397.69, -4.8% ROI 2019/20 P&L: Northern Monkey: £2606.74, 23.4% ROI The Value Bettor: £2698.09, 37.9% ROI Racing Service 3: £394.18, 0.9% ROI Scottish Football Bets: -£859.39, -4.4% ROI Golf Betting Expert: -£659.93, -16.6% ROI Golf Service 2: -£144.29, -5.5% ROI My Own Bets: -£1201.95, -20.4% ROI Total: £2833.45, 3.0% ROI

Wednesday, 20 November 2019

The Games a Bogey for Betting Gods

Yesterday I received an email from Golf Betting Expert apologising for his recent below par performance and how he’s taken the decision to call it a day with the GBE service. This came as a shock as despite recent results falling below the previous high standards it’s hardly been a disaster. This year has been frustrating with so many near misses, but all we needed was for variance to even out and two or three of those near misses to get the win for the bottom line to look a lot different. I got in touch with Craig who runs the service to tell him exactly that, and also to thank him for the time and effort he’s put in and wish him well for the future only for Craig to inform me that the email didn’t come from him at all! It turns out that Craig and Betting Gods (the platform that host GBE) have had a disagreement which has resulted in Betting Gods removing GBE from their site. I don’t know the ins and outs of the fall out, nor do I want to, disagreements happen, but for Betting Gods to issue an email in the guise of GBE is pretty unprofessional and to be honest is severely out of order. Why not tell it how it is and use the email to get their side of the story over, or at least advise subscribers that both parties have decided to go their separate ways? Instead, the email tricks the reader into thinking that Craig has lost his confidence and can’t handle the recent run of results which would obviously raise concerns about his ability as a tipster. It paints the picture of a man who has lost all confidence in his ability to turn a profit which would be the final nail in the coffin of the service. The email used terminology like, “I’m afraid I’m calling it a day” and “I’m really sorry the performance this year has been below par”, before finally signing it off with “All the best, Craig”. There are always two sides to a story but to try and imitate someone and lead paying subscribers along is outrageous. It really doesn’t show Betting Gods in a good light and will make me think twice about ever getting involved with them again in the future. Going forward Craig has advised that he plans to continue the GBE service via a private mailing list, and has asked me to post the following information for potential subscribers… Hi to all my members/followers. Due to differences between me and Betting Gods I have been kicked off their site which is disappointing but I’m excited to announce that I’ll be setting up my own mailing list service. It will still be a subscription based service via Paypal with competitive rates offered. If you’re interested in signing up to my new service please email me at craigwalker11@outlook.com. Thanks you all for support and here’s to an exciting future for the new golf service. Craig Walker. My initial impression of the situation is that Craig has been hard done by after raising concerns about how his service was being run, however this disruption combined with recent below par performance could indicate that there are other underlying issues that may impact future profitability. I hope this isn’t the case but I’ll be keeping a close eye on things in the coming weeks and months before being completely comfortable with things. Hopefully this clean break is the catalyst that GBE needs to start producing some serious profit again. Now that’s all out of the way, recent portfolio results have put a slight dent in the purple patch I’ve been having. First up and staying with the golfers GBE advised his biggest bet of the year (10pt EW) on Louis Oosthuizen (9.0) in South Africa. The bet was advised as each way 7 places, but I’m restricted by the bookies who offer enhanced places therefore had to be content with 5 places. You’ll know what happens next! Louis raced to a 3 shot lead in Round 1 and maintained a top 3 position all weekend only to collapse on the Sunday and post +3 to finish 6th and deny me a return! Golf Service 2 didn’t let the side down when maintaining consistency with this seasons place theme managing to find Lee Westwood (34.0 dh), Billy Horschel (21.0 dh), Harris English (41.0) and Thomas Detry Top 10 (5.5) to add to the every growing list of place finishes. It was mixed fortunes elsewhere with only The Value Bettor producing anything of note. Only one winner was produced but what a winner it was. Happy Diva was advised 0.75pts win, 0.25pt place at 12/1. I managed to get £25 EW at 12/1, £25 EW at 14/1, and £100 win at 17.0 on Betfair later in the day to ensure a profitable weekend for TVB. November P&L: Northern Monkey: -£113.86, -10.3% ROI The Value Bettor: £2215.45, 54.1% ROI Racing Service 3: £1344.99, 11.3% ROI Scottish Football Bets: -£61.09, -2.3% ROI Golf Betting Expert: -£122.00, -29.8% ROI Golf Service 2: -£129.25, -39.8% ROI My Own Bets: -£35.00, -3.0% ROI Total: £3099.24, 14.3% ROI 2019/20 P&L: Northern Monkey: £3016.74, 26.9% ROI The Value Bettor: £2977.76, 56.8% ROI Racing Service 3: £3385.42, 8.8% ROI Scottish Football Bets: -£595.66, -3.1% ROI Golf Betting Expert: -£600.21, -15.5% ROI Golf Service 2: -£9.29, -0.4% ROI My Own Bets: -£844.38, -15.3% ROI Total: £7330.38, 8.5% ROI

Wednesday, 13 November 2019

NMP End of Season Report

The Northern Monkey Punter season has been on the wind down for a few weeks now and the abandonment of Doncaster on Saturday officially signalled the end of the 2019 flat season. The NMP 2019 season ran from 01/01/19 to 10/11/19 so this week Wayne issued his End of Season Report which made for an interesting read. Official figures have the 2019 total profit at 31.66 points which would equate to £1266.40 at my £40 per point stake. Despite my betting season (for record purposes) starting in July I looked back at last season’s records to provide an accurate comparison of how I fared compared to official results. Due to NMP’s fair odds quoting policy it’ll come as no surprise to learn that I managed to exceed the official results, as I suspect the vast majority of subscribers will have. My total profit for the 2019 season was 90.61 points equating to £3624.51 at £40 per point. The increased performance is down to a combination of being able to take better odds than Wayne puts on record, and also due to betting the selections win only as I’ve outlined in the past. As Wayne confessed himself, it wasn’t the best of seasons with a number of near misses and the luck of the gods not shining down on us on a number of occasions; however, it also wasn’t the worst. If all my tipsters produced a 90 point profit each year then I’d be a very happy man. Going forward my long term plan is to increase stakes to £100 per point to bring all racing services in line, however I’ve got concerns about how feasible this will be in practice. NMP issues bets early morning so it won’t be the wisest idea to increase stakes with bookies when accounts are already under pressure. Bets are also released before the minimum bet offers are available and when liquidity is non-existent so I may need to be inventive when trying to get on. It’s not an immediate concern though as I won’t be increasing stakes until June next year which is the most profitable period historically when the flat season is well underway but it’s something I need to start to consider. I’m curious to see if it’s possible to follow NMP later in the day via the exchanges but this will obviously increase time and effort which is something I need to consider. It might be the best time to investigate though since turnover is down and the risk of missing out on big profits is at its lowest. In other news, Racing Service 3 followed up his incredible start to the month with one of his best days of the year finding 4 winners from 8 bets to post a 45 point profit on the 6th of the month. This briefly took the season’s P&L over the £10k mark for the first time but we’ve seen a severe correction since with practically all that profit handed back. To make matters worse I missed an 8.0 winner yesterday and a 4.33 winner today as I was again distracted at work. They had BSP's of 5.8 and 3.3 respectively which I felt was too short so left the bets alone. I’ve been keeping track of missed Racing Service 3 bets since April and in that period I’ve missed a huge 69 bets, of which 11 were winners which amounts to just under £1500 in missed profit. I’m not sure what the best plan of attack is with these at the moment to be honest. It doesn’t help when your mind is affected by short term bias as 6 of the last 8 missed bets have gone on to win. My sensible head is telling me to continue to pass on bets when the value has gone but when you get a few go against you in a short period of time you can’t help but wonder if you’d be better off taking BSP or even staking slightly more on steamers to ensure the winnings are equal to what you would have won if the odds didn’t contract. Food for thought but I suspect my sensible head will win the argument.
The Value Bettor was unable to land any of the tips that were issued on a low key weekend, but I managed to use his write-ups to produce some profit. Andrew identified short priced favourites Reverse Tank and Fusil Raffles as being the most likely winners of the 14.25 and 15.00 at Wincanton on Saturday but also identified the two most likely to follow them home in If You Say Run and Grand Sancy. I decided to back the straight forecast in each race which fortunately turned out to be a good decision. The following day he also mentioned that Ballyoisin would have been a tip at prices between 5.5 and 5.0 only for the horse to be cut to 4.5 moments before he was due to issue the tip. Fortunately I managed to get 5.5 on the exchange later in the day so even though TVB’s tipping windows restrict some opportunities there’s still scope for profit if you show patience and willingness to absorb the write-ups. That being said though, I always find it a tough call to make when trying to use the write-ups to your advantage as you always curse yourself for throwing away profit when things don’t work out, but there definitely is money to be made if being selective. In the last update I mentioned that Scottish Football Bets had started the month well but really needed to start showing some consistency as it’s been a story of one step forward two steps back. That’s precisely what has happened again this week as £498.07 was won in the first 5 days of the month and £512.91 lost since. It really has been a frustrating season so far for SFB. Both golf services managed to find a place return with Matthias Schwab (29.0) and Victor Perez (41.0) unfortunately losing out in a 6 man play-off in the Turkish Airlines Open for Golf Service 2 and Golf Betting Expert respectively. That’s now the 7th time I’ve backed Schwab in the last 3 months and 5 of those times he’s managed a place return which is incredible consistency. What it also does though is tell us a story about how unfortunate things have been on the golf this year as it’s been a case of places a plenty with winners hard to come by. November P&L: Northern Monkey: £36.14, 5.3% ROI The Value Bettor: £1394.00, 58.8% ROI Racing Service 3: £2177.63, 28.3% ROI Scottish Football Bets: -£14.84, -0.8% ROI Golf Betting Expert: £78.00, 37.1% ROI Golf Service 2: -£99.50, -56.1% ROI My Own Bets: £101.44, 12.1% ROI Total: £3672.87, 26.7% ROI 2019/20 P&L: Northern Monkey: £3166.74, 29.4% ROI The Value Bettor: £2156.31, 61.3% ROI Racing Service 3: £4218.06, 12.2% ROI Scottish Football Bets: -£549.41, -3.0% ROI Golf Betting Expert: -£400.21, -10.9% ROI Golf Service 2: £20.46, 0.9% ROI My Own Bets: -£707.94, -13.6% ROI Total: £7904.01, 10.1% ROI

Wednesday, 6 November 2019

November Starts With a Bang

This month has certainly started with a bang – and in more ways than one! I enjoyed a few celebratory pints at the local fireworks display over the weekend to toast an exceptional few days punting and fortunately the good form has also continued into the week. I don’t like to get over excited when results go in your favour, and similarly I try not to get too disheartened when the drawdowns like the last few weeks hit in order to avoid getting too emotionally attached, but sometimes you are allowed to celebrate. The big story of the weekend was without doubt at Ascot where TVB tipped Diego Du Charmil in the 14.10. If you haven’t seen the finish to the race then I’d highly recommend you spare 30 seconds to have a look twitter.com/itvracing/stat. Diego cruised through the race and was stamping his authority two out with only stablemate Capeland posing a threat. Approaching the last I was feeling confident but Diego seemed to get distracted and tried to follow the loose horse around the fence, only for the fence to get in the way and force Diego to jump through the edge of it, rather than over the conventional part of the fence. Capeland was completely impeded and was forced into the barriers, although Diego managed to avoid the barrier by millimetres. At that point I couldn’t believe my eyes and was cursing my luck at what looked like an odds on winner throwing it away at the final fence due to a freak turn of events. However, Diego somehow managed to revitalise himself to get going again from basically a standing start to keep his remaining onrushing rivals at bay. I’ve never shouted at a TV as much as I did between that final fence and the finishing line in my life but how he managed to get over the line in front considering the momentum the closers had I’ll never know. The stewards enquiry that followed was by far the longest enquiry I’ve ever seen – I can only assume this type of incident was the first the stewards had encountered it but it must have lasted a good 30 minutes. Considering I had £200 on at 9/1 then it was a bloody long half hour as even the pundits on ITV struggled to agree on what the outcome would be. Fortunately the luck of the gambling gods was shining down on us as Diego was awarded the race eventually! What a way to start the TVB season! Things were a little more low key with Northern Monkey as Wayne continued his quality over quantity policy producing a 25% strike rate with Kameko (6.5), Iridessa (9.0) and Sashenka (7.5) adding to the pot. Regular readers will have seen me mention a few times about how the performance of Racing Service 3 directly impacts the performance of the overall portfolio due to the staking plan I adopt and the need for me to take action to reduce that dependency and decrease the volatility that occurs due to it. Allocating TVB with a similar size betting bank to Racing Service 3 was the 1st step in the process to ensure both services can help even out the potential losses of the other, but I’ve now also taken another step that should hopefully improve things further. In my Racing Service 3 introductory post I outlined my reasons for ignoring the advised staking plan and why I decided to follow a level stakes £100 per point plan. Previous results proved the level stakes approach was most profitable and it also informed that the max drawdown to date was half of the drawdown experienced if following the advised plan. This is still true but what the previous analysis doesn’t take into account is how difficult it can be to place £100 level stakes on the bigger priced selections that come under increased price pressure. There have been numerous times where I’ve been unable to get the full stake on which leaves you at risk of missing a big priced winner. It also no longer makes sense to me to be throwing £100 at 33/1 shots when the strike rate is so low, all this does is lead to massive swings and skewing of results. I also previously stated that I reduce my workload by following only the Cat 20 selections, however, now that I’m reverting back to advised staking I’m now introducing the Cat 15 bets. The official advice of the service is to follow both Cat 15 and Cat 20 with a £50/point, 200 point bank, so that’s exactly what I’m going to do. My actual bank will remain the same since the level stakes bank was £100/point, 100 point bank, therefore in monetary terms they’re exactly the same. I admitted at the time there was risk that level stake approach could lead to ruin, especially since the tipster himself warned me against it due to the probability of a 100 point level stake bank going bust eventually, so hopefully this change will reduce that probability while also increasing turnover to smooth out the huge profit and loss swings. Since I made the switch at the start of this month performance has been incredible. A strike rate of 31.8% has been generated over 33 bets to provide nearly £3k profit at a ROI of 92.4% so initial signs are positive. Elsewhere, SFB has started the month off well although I’d like to see some consistency now. This season has been a case of one step forward two steps back so hopefully things start moving forward from here. It was a similar story again with the golf with Golf Betting Expert finding another 2 places in M Schwab (101.0) and A Ancer (111). That brings everything up to date and you’ll see from the figures below how good the last two weeks have been. It just goes to show how quickly things can change after me bemoaning the £5k+ drawdown that lasted a number of weeks only to now report that a new peak profit has been generated with almost £7000 profit in the last fortnight. November P&L: Northern Monkey: £206.14, 64.6% ROI The Value Bettor: £882.00, 76.7% ROI Racing Service 3: £2759.32, 92.4% ROI Scottish Football Bets: £498.20, 76.6% ROI Golf Betting Expert: £100.00, 100.0% ROI Golf Service 2: -£35.00, -43.8% ROI My Own Bets: -£29.09, -5.9% ROI Total: £4381.57, 75.8% ROI 2019/20 P&L: Northern Monkey: £3336.74, 32.0% ROI The Value Bettor: £1644.31, 71.5% ROI Racing Service 3: £4799.75, 16.1% ROI Scottish Football Bets: -£36.37, -0.2% ROI Golf Betting Expert: -£378.21, -10.6% ROI Golf Service 2: £84.96, 3.8% ROI My Own Bets: -£838.47, -17.3% ROI Total: £8612.71, 12.3% ROI

Monday, 4 November 2019

October Review

I’m still chasing my tail trying to catch up with things so I’ll get the monthly round-up out the way and hopefully bring things up to date in the next day or two. There’s plenty to talk about but not enough hours in the day! However, I’m pleased to report that things are starting to move in the right direction, and touch wood I think the worst is now behind me. All 3 racing services have hit some form which has fortunately repaired some of the damage inflicted by the draw down I’ve been enduring. In terms of money won, Racing Service 3 is top of the tree, finding no fewer than 8 winners in 10 days. All The Kings Men (9.0), Feminista (9.0), Templepark (5.0), Gabrial The Devil (8.0), Yuften (3.0), Kafu (4.5), Notice To Close (4.5) and Fragrant Belle (3.5) all provided some much needed relief from what has been a difficult month. I also actually missed one winner as I was in a 09.00 – 14.00 meeting at work meaning I was unable to place Battleofthesomme (8.0) who triumphed in the 13.40 at Southwell on the 24th of the month. A meeting that cost me £700 profit! Northern Monkey’s season is on the wind down now with the flat season now behind us. Stakes are now being reduced although Wayne plans to keep things ticking over on the all-weather this winter which is where he enjoyed some success last year. It was definitely quality over quantity with the bets he did provide though with 4 winners from 9 producing a ROI 141.9% for that small sample. All Yours (6.0), Kwela (5.5), Soldiers Minute (4.5) and Kafu (4.5) all helped eat into our deficit. Andrew brought an end to another profitable TVB pre-season after giving positive mentions for Petite Power (17.0) and The Conditional (17.5). I decided to take heed of the advice and tread cautiously although even with a conservative approach I still managed to make a fine profit due to the high standard of Andrew’s write-ups. It sets things up nicely for the main TVB season commencing. The golf services continue to knock on the door with another handful of places a 2nd place finish by Brandon Stone for Golf Service 2. The South African traded as low as 1.33 for the win at the Portugal Masters but unfortunately came up one shot shy to scupper a 100/1 winner.

In summary, October has been a difficult. There have been times when I’ve struggled to see where the next win will come from as bet after bet was recorded as a loser, so to finish only 229 quid down is somewhat surprising and a welcome bonus. The last week of the month generated over £2.5k profit which just goes to show how quickly things can change as long as you stick to the plan. October P&L: Northern Monkey: -£83.41 (-2.09 pts), -3.1% ROI, -1.7% ROC The Value Bettor: £762.31 (3.81 pts), 66.3% ROI, 6.4% Racing Service 3: £1222.57 (12.23 pts), 15.9% ROI, 12.2% ROC Scottish Football Bets: -£1181.80 (-11.82 pts), -26.2% ROI, -29.5% ROC Golf Betting Expert: -£164.00 (-16.4 pts), -19.1% ROI, -3.3% ROC Golf Service 2: -£104.99 (-10.50 pts), -22.3% ROI, -4.2% ROC My Own Bets: -£680.36, -35.2% ROI Total: -£229.68, -1.2% ROI, -1.3% ROC 2019/20 P&L: Northern Monkey: £3130.60 (78.27 pts), 31.0% ROI, 65.2% ROC The Value Bettor: £762.31 (3.81 pts), 66.3% ROI, 6.4% Racing Service 3: £2040.43 (20.40 pts), 7.6% ROI, 20.4% ROC Scottish Football Bets: -£534.57 (-5.35 pts), -3.3% ROI, -13.4% ROC Golf Betting Expert: -£478.21 (-47.82 pts), -13.8% ROI, -9.6% ROC Golf Service 2: £119.96 (12.00 pts), 5.5% ROI, 4.8% ROC My Own Bets: -£809.38, -18.6% ROI Total: £4231.14, 6.6% ROI, 24.3% ROC